Bitcoin’s rapid rise above the $100,000 mark last week has sparked speculation about its future direction, with some analysts suggesting that the cryptocurrency could reach even greater heights in the coming months. According to Derive, a decentralized finance (DeFi) derivatives platform, there is a small but notable chance that Bitcoin could surpass $150,000 by the end of January 2025.
Derive’s head of research, Sean Dawson, shared insights on the market’s sentiment, stating that there is a 6% likelihood of Bitcoin reaching the $150,000 milestone. This estimate is based on Bitcoin’s recent performance, including its historic rally above the $100,000 threshold, which was followed by volatile price action.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent volatility, Dawson believes that the market has started to stabilize. The 25 delta skew, a metric that compares the price bias between call and put options, has remained steady, indicating that traders’ expectations for price direction have not significantly changed.
Dawson noted that the 25 delta skew has remained consistent over the past week, suggesting that the market is consolidating after its recent fluctuations. This lack of major shifts indicates that traders are adopting a more cautious, wait-and-see approach as they assess the next possible move for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s price action has demonstrated significant volatility recently, but the weekend typically sees quieter trading activity. According to Dawson, this quieter market environment often leads to reduced volatility, providing an opportunity for price movements to stabilize before the start of a new trading week.
The slower weekend trading could be a crucial factor in how the market behaves in the next few weeks, especially as Bitcoin approaches its next major support and resistance levels. With institutional investors continuing to make moves, Bitcoin remains a focal point for many traders, adding to its potential for further upward momentum.
While the 6% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by January may seem modest, it reflects a cautious optimism among market experts. Dawson points to the influence of institutional investors, who have been making significant investments in Bitcoin through products like spot ETFs. These investments, along with the activity from major players like MicroStrategy, which continues to buy Bitcoin at an accelerated pace, could provide the momentum needed for Bitcoin to push towards new price levels.
Bitcoin’s price has recently been boosted by favorable sentiment following the 2024 U.S. elections, where President-elect Donald Trump pledged to implement a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. and protect the interests of domestic crypto miners. These promises have reignited interest in Bitcoin, particularly among retail and institutional investors.
Looking ahead, there are even bolder predictions on the horizon. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, recently stated in a report that Bitcoin could double in value over the next year, potentially reaching $200,000 by 2025. This forecast is driven by ongoing flows of institutional investment, as well as the increasing adoption of Bitcoin in both financial markets and the broader economy.
With support from influential figures and institutions, Bitcoin remains in a strong position to continue its upward trend in the coming months. However, as with all markets, volatility and uncertainties persist, and investors must proceed with caution and monitor the evolving landscape.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s journey towards $150,000 is filled with potential and risks. The derivatives market signals a cautious yet optimistic outlook, with a small chance of significant gains by January 2025. As institutional investments continue to flow into the market and there is increased political support for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin could very well test new all-time highs. Whether it surpasses $150,000 or follows a more modest trajectory will largely depend on broader market dynamics, institutional involvement, and global economic factors in the months ahead.
