Bitcoin Supply in Profit Signals Euphoria Stage
Bitcoin, the world’s most prominent cryptocurrency, has seen a significant surge in its supply entering profit, a clear indicator that the market is entering the euphoric stage of a bullish cycle. As of April 29, 2025, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has exceeded 90%, with recent data from CryptoQuant and IntoTheBlock confirming the exact figure to be at 91%. This shift suggests that many Bitcoin holders are now benefiting from the recent market rebound.
Despite Bitcoin hovering around the $95,000 mark, failing to break through resistance levels since Friday, the recent uptick has put holders in a favorable position. However, this surge in profit is drawing attention to the potential for significant price action in the near future. Analysts are now focusing on what this could mean for Bitcoin’s short-term price movement.
Bitcoin Supply in Profit Signals Euphoria Stage
According to a Tuesday analysis by Darkfost, a well-known technical analyst and contributor to CryptoQuant, a supply profit of over 90% is a telltale sign that Bitcoin has entered the “euphoria” phase of its market cycle. This phase is the final stage of the bull cycle and is typically marked by a sharp upward trend in prices.
In the past, similar profit levels have been observed during periods of intense market excitement. However, CryptoQuant analysis suggests that this stage, while offering significant gains for holders, is also closely followed by a short-term correction, as investors begin to take profits. Historically, once Bitcoin’s supply in profit begins to approach these levels, the market starts showing signs of over-optimism and is at risk of a retracement.
Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin’s supply in profit fell to around 75% during previous market corrections, and a drop below that threshold often triggers increased selling, as holders look to capitalize on their gains. Yet, for now, the situation remains favorable, as investors are not under heavy pressure to sell.
The Euphoria Phase: What Does It Mean for Bitcoin’s Future?
The euphoria phase can be an exciting yet precarious time for Bitcoin, as it often signals that the market is nearing its peak for the current cycle. However, it is important to note that past cycles have shown that this phase is typically followed by a significant correction.
The optimism generated during the euphoria phase often leads to new all-time highs, but once the initial excitement begins to fade, a price pullback is common. Notably, analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that Bitcoin could surge to $120,000 by the end of Q2 2025. Other experts have forecast even higher targets, with projections ranging from $200,000 to $250,000 by the close of 2025.
While this bullish outlook is certainly enticing, analysts are also urging caution. Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s euphoric market phases have been followed by retracements, often resulting in a significant drop in the percentage of the supply in profit. This shift could be a precursor to the market entering a more bearish phase.
A Correction Could Be Imminent
CryptoQuant’s warning about a potential correction is supported by historical trends. The data shows that after the euphoria phase, Bitcoin has typically experienced an extensive retracement, with the supply in profit dropping to around 50% during bear market conditions. This pattern has been consistent in the last three bull cycles, indicating that while the market is currently thriving, the rally might not be sustainable without some form of correction.
The uncertainty around how long the euphoria phase will last adds to the complexity of predicting Bitcoin’s price movement. Ki Youn Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, previously suggested that the euphoria phase could last anywhere from three to twelve months. This means that while the market may continue to see bullish action in the short term, there is always the risk of a correction on the horizon.
Bitcoin’s Current Price and Market Outlook
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $94,893, just under the significant $95,000 resistance level that has proven difficult to surpass in recent days. Bitcoin’s struggle to break through this price barrier may indicate that the market is facing a moment of indecision—caught between bullish optimism and the natural pullback that often follows a period of exuberance.
Bitcoin’s movement within this range will be closely monitored by investors, as it could provide important clues about the potential direction of the market in the coming weeks. If Bitcoin can break through $95,000 and sustain a rally, the euphoric phase could continue, potentially driving prices to new all-time highs.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Looking ahead, the key question is whether Bitcoin can maintain its momentum and avoid the correction that typically follows the euphoria phase. While analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, they also caution that the market’s current rally could be unsustainable without some form of consolidation.
The euphoria stage is often a time for cautious optimism. For now, the Bitcoin market is still in a phase of profit-taking, and the potential for a new price surge remains high. However, investors should be aware that the likelihood of a pullback increases as the market continues to display signs of overbought conditions.
Bitcoin’s future trajectory will depend largely on how it navigates these crucial price levels in the coming months. Will the market sustain its bullish trend, or will we see a correction as the euphoria phase comes to an end? Only time will tell.
