In a bold prediction that’s stirring discussion across financial markets
Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has warned that a significant market correction may be just around the corner. While the forecast includes sharp downturns across Bitcoin, oil, copper, and equities, McGlone maintains that such a reversion is not unusual by historical standards.
Tensions in Traditional Markets
Taking to the platform X (formerly Twitter), McGlone highlighted concerning signals in traditional markets and connected them to broader economic tensions, including trade policies and global asset imbalances. According to the strategist, the U.S. economy could be approaching a breaking point due to soaring asset valuations, historical price-to-GDP ratios, and aggressive economic strategies.
The Tendency to Self-Correct
Central to McGlone’s warning is the idea that markets have long shown a tendency to self-correct. In his view, the current high ratio of the S&P 500 to both U.S. GDP and gold is a red flag — levels that, in the past, preceded market crashes like those seen in the 1930s, the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, and the 2008 financial crisis.
Forecasts of Significant Declines
His base-case scenario outlines a staggering but historically grounded drop in asset prices. Among his forecasts:
- A 50% decline in the U.S. stock market
- Crude oil retreating to $40 per barrel
- Copper sliding to $3 per pound
- A fall in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3%
- A drop in Bitcoin to $10,000, with 90% drawdowns across most cryptocurrencies
- A surge in gold to $4,000 per ounce, standing as a unique outlier
A Normal Reversion
McGlone frames these projections as part of a “normal reversion” — not a doomsday scenario, but a natural response to extreme economic conditions that have been building over the last decade. “America’s self-correcting mechanism is unstoppable,” he wrote, referring to the political and market responses that tend to emerge when systems become imbalanced.
Potential Backlash Against Economic Policies
A key theme in McGlone’s post is the potential backlash against President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and the broader idea of economic “austerity.” He suggests that either the policies themselves will cause disruption or voter pushback in future elections will prompt sharp reversals in economic direction — both of which could lead to financial turbulence.
Current Market Data
As of the latest market data, Bitcoin is holding above $87,500 — far from the $10,000 level McGlone warns about, but if his predictions hold, it could represent a dramatic 90% decline from its all-time highs. His view aligns with historical patterns seen in previous crypto bear markets, where BTC has repeatedly lost more than 80% of its value from peak to trough.
Oil Markets and Gold as a Safe Haven
Oil markets, too, are on shaky ground. After surging earlier this year amid geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, crude prices have shown increased volatility. A fall to $40 per barrel would mark a significant shift from recent highs, potentially bringing relief to consumers but creating pressure on oil-dependent economies.
Meanwhile, McGlone sees gold as the exception. Unlike risk assets such as crypto or equities, gold has a historical reputation as a hedge against turmoil. His $4,000 forecast suggests a sharp upward move in the precious metal as investors seek safety.
Conclusion: Preparation Over Panic
While some in the finance world may see McGlone’s outlook as overly bearish, others note that his analysis is grounded in data and long-term market cycles. The call for a 50% drop in the stock market echoes previous downturns — not as anomalies, but as inevitable corrections following periods of excessive growth and valuation imbalances.
Ultimately, McGlone’s forecast isn’t about panic — it’s about preparation. For investors, traders, and policymakers alike, the message is clear: history has a way of repeating itself, and in financial markets, balance is always eventually restored.
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