Toncoin (TON) has recently reached a significant milestone, with its USDT holdings surpassing $1 billion after experiencing a remarkable 670% surge in just half a year. This achievement has placed the Telegram-linked blockchain in the top ten networks in terms of stablecoin dominance, just below Ethereum’s Optimism. Despite this impressive growth in stablecoin holdings, Toncoin’s price performance has not reflected the same level of excitement, prompting speculation about the underlying factors at play.
The surge in Toncoin’s USDT holdings is a reflection of the overall growth of stablecoins in the cryptocurrency market. According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, the increase in Toncoin’s USDT supply can be attributed to the rising popularity of stablecoins and the competitive transaction fees offered by the TON network. Kesmeci predicts that the total supply of USDT could reach $200 billion during the next bull market, further driving interest in fast and cost-effective blockchain networks like TON.
One notable development in the TON network is the decrease in average USDT transfer fees, which have fallen from $0.061 to $0.035—a 42% decrease over the same period. This reduction in transaction costs makes Toncoin more appealing to users, potentially leading to increased adoption.
Despite the growth in USDT holdings, Toncoin’s price has remained relatively stagnant. While the cryptocurrency experienced a brief surge of nearly 80% between May and June, it began to decline in August, partly due to the arrest of Telegram’s founder and general market conditions. The weak market demand caused Toncoin to fall below its long-term trendline resistance.
Current analysis indicates that Toncoin’s on-balance volume (OBV) has remained flat, indicating a lack of strong demand from the spot market. The altcoin’s recent performance has highlighted the challenges it faces in breaking through resistance levels necessary for a significant price recovery. Experts suggest that a decisive move above the $5 mark could signal a shift in market structure and potentially lead to a stronger upward trend.
Traders on the Binance exchange have shown a bullish sentiment towards Toncoin, with approximately 53% of top traders holding net long positions, indicating a moderate expectation for price recovery. However, this optimism is tempered by an understanding of market dynamics, including sell-side pressure.
In September, there was a notable decrease in sell pressure on exchanges, but this trend reversed in October, signaling a potential increase in selling activity. These fluctuations could impact Toncoin’s future price movements.
Data shows that the supply held by large investors, known as “whales,” has increased during this period. This suggests that whales may be taking advantage of lower prices by purchasing discounted TON from retail investors. The balance of supply and demand in this scenario indicates that exchange sell pressure may not necessarily result in significant downward price pressure.
Despite these factors, Toncoin’s prospects are overshadowed by subdued market interest. The low number of daily active addresses interacting with the network indicates a lack of broad market engagement, despite the substantial growth in stablecoin holdings.
In conclusion, Toncoin’s achievement in surpassing $1 billion in USDT holdings is a significant milestone for the network, highlighting its position in the competitive cryptocurrency landscape. However, to translate stablecoin success into price performance, Toncoin will need more than impressive growth metrics. Increased market participation, higher trading volume, and a positive shift in overall sentiment will be crucial for sustaining any upward momentum. As the crypto market continues to evolve, all eyes will be on Toncoin to see if it can leverage its stablecoin strength to achieve a meaningful price recovery.
