Cardano (ADA) ETF Approval: The Struggle to Live Up to Expectations
Cardano (ADA) has emerged as a notable contender in the growing race for altcoin-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), with Bloomberg analysts placing a 75% probability on a Cardano spot ETF introducing in 2025. Yet, despite this seemingly promising forecast, ADA’s market behavior and on-chain performance suggest the token could be struggling to live up to that optimism.
While the broader crypto market has started Q2 on a strong note, bouncing back to a $3 trillion total market cap, Cardano has yet to gain meaningful momentum. Bitcoin’s surge past $96,000 has historically been a trigger for high-cap altcoin rallies. But this time, ADA has remained stagnant around the $0.70 mark, still shy of the $0.80 resistance level it last touched in late Q1.
One of the reasons behind ADA’s stall may be consistent sell pressure during rallies. Every time the price approaches $0.70, on-chain data shows a spike in the transaction volume in profit-to-loss ratio. This suggests a large number of holders are cashing out as soon as ADA shows signs of recovery, effectively capping its potential upside.
Additionally, Cardano’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has hit a three-month high, indicating that the asset’s valuation may be running ahead of its actual utility. In essence, the network’s market cap is outpacing the level of active transaction activity, which raises concerns about speculative pricing and a lack of real user growth.
Taken together, these factors point to weak buyer demand and a sluggish capital inflow for ADA. With resistance forming at key price levels and limited momentum from investors, the risk of a correction could outweigh the chances of a breakout—even if the ETF approval odds remain statistically favorable.
Meanwhile, the altcoin ETF race is intensifying. Bloomberg has placed higher odds on both Solana (SOL) and XRP, giving them each a 90% chance of securing an ETF approval this year. Solana’s advantage appears to be growing, boosted by recent developments like the launch of the TRUMP coin on its network and stronger trading metrics across the board.
Cardano, in contrast, seems caught in neutral. The TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is nearing a major supply wall—signaling potential trouble for altcoins trying to push higher. Compounding this, Bitcoin’s market dominance is climbing toward 65%, a level that historically coincides with money flowing out of altcoins and into BTC.
With institutional capital increasingly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, the remaining altcoins are now in a race to attract attention—and an ETF approval could be the winning ticket. But for Cardano to remain competitive, it must break above its current resistance and reignite bullish sentiment. A strong technical performance would strengthen the case for ETF approval and help counter the narrative that ADA is lagging behind its peers.
Ultimately, while a 75% chance for an ADA ETF sounds promising, the current state of Cardano’s price action and on-chain signals suggest there’s still work to be done. If momentum doesn’t shift soon, ADA risks being left behind as investors and institutions flock to stronger-performing assets like Solana.
As the race toward the first approved altcoin ETF heats up, every move counts—and for Cardano, closing the performance gap could be critical to staying in the game.
Post Views:
3
