The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again delayed a decision that the crypto market has been watching closely.
This time, it involves the highly anticipated spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposed by Franklin Templeton. The new deadline is now set for June 17, 2025, leaving investors speculating about the possible outcomes and market implications in the weeks ahead.
This isn’t the first time the SEC has opted for delay tactics with crypto ETFs. Other filings, such as Bitwise’s DOGE ETF and Grayscale’s HBAR ETF, have also seen their timelines pushed back. Analysts like Bloomberg’s James Seyffart noted that such delays were anticipated, with final decisions on most filings not expected until October. However, while procedural, these delays continue to keep the broader crypto market in a state of suspense.
Despite the regulatory holdup, optimism remains strong. Bloomberg’s ETF analysts currently estimate an 85% chance that the spot XRP ETF will be approved in 2025. Other altcoins such as Solana, Litecoin, and crypto index funds have slightly higher odds, projected at 90%, while Hedera and Dogecoin ETFs share similar approval probabilities with XRP, sitting in the 80-85% range. Meanwhile, ETFs for Avalanche, Polkadot, and Cardano are viewed as slightly less likely, with odds hovering around 75%.
Industry voices have echoed that optimism. Nate Geraci of The ETF Store expressed confidence that approvals for various altcoin ETFs, including those involving staking and in-kind redemption processes, are still expected to come through before year’s end. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas backed that sentiment, indicating a strong chance of eventual SEC approval across the board. Finance lawyer and crypto investor Scott Johnson went as far as suggesting that June or July could mark the beginning of a wave of approvals, calling it the “party” season for crypto ETF declarations.
While regulatory bodies remain cautious, whales seem to be anything but. On-chain data from Santiment shows that large-scale investors have been accumulating XRP in bulk. In just the past two days, wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP tokens increased their holdings by over 1 billion coins—rising from 8.16 billion to 9.16 billion. This level of accumulation from top-tier investors typically signals strong confidence in the asset’s near-future potential, often preceding major price movements.
This accumulation surge comes as XRP trades in a narrow band, currently hovering between $2.10 and $2.40. Analysts suggest that the $2.40 to $2.50 range represents a critical resistance level. A sustained breakout above this zone could trigger renewed momentum for XRP, particularly if bullish sentiment from ETF speculation continues to rise. However, if Bitcoin maintains its tight consolidation around the $95,000 mark, XRP could remain range-bound in the short term.
Despite the sideways movement on the charts, the whale activity suggests that institutional and high-net-worth investors are positioning themselves early, potentially anticipating a rally tied to the ETF approval or broader altcoin resurgence. If the SEC offers a green light in June, XRP could see a sharp uptick in both price and trading volume, driven by renewed interest from retail investors who have largely stayed on the sidelines so far.
In the meantime, all eyes remain on regulatory developments. The next few months are likely to be pivotal, not just for XRP, but for the broader crypto market as ETF decisions roll out. For now, large investors appear to be playing the long game—accumulating quietly as the SEC keeps the market guessing.
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