Ripple’s XRP Faces Significant Pressure
Ripple’s XRP has been under significant pressure lately, failing to sustain momentum despite some positive updates regarding its ongoing lawsuit with the SEC. The altcoin has struggled to break past key resistance levels and continues to face challenges in a bear market. Recently, renowned price chart analyst Peter Brandt issued a bearish forecast for XRP, predicting a potential 43% drop if the coin slips below critical support levels.
Peter Brandt’s Bearish Forecast
Peter Brandt, a respected figure in the world of technical analysis, has raised alarms about XRP’s price trajectory. He recently pointed out a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern forming on XRP’s price chart. According to Brandt, if XRP fails to stay above the $1.9 level, it could see a drastic decline, potentially reaching as low as $1.07. This represents a 43% drop from its current levels, a significant move for the altcoin.
Brandt’s analysis emphasized the range-bound nature of XRP’s price action. He warned that any price movement below $1.9 could trigger a sharp sell-off, leading to the formation of the H&S pattern’s target at $1.07. His comments suggest that traders should be cautious, especially if XRP breaks below this support zone. For Brandt, staying above $2.5 remains a key resistance point to avoid further downside risks. However, if XRP falls under $1.9, it could spell trouble for long-term holders.
XRP’s Struggle to Surpass $2.5
Despite positive developments on the SEC lawsuit front, Ripple’s XRP has been stuck in a downtrend throughout Q1 2025. The token has shed around 30% from its record high of $3.40, failing to rally above the critical $2.5 resistance level. This price point has proven to be a significant hurdle for XRP, as it has repeatedly faced rejection at these levels.
Although the recent legal updates had fueled some hope for Ripple’s supporters, the market has been largely unresponsive, and XRP has not demonstrated the strength needed to reclaim higher prices. This lack of price action has led some analysts to question the sustainability of XRP’s current market structure.
On-Chain Signals: Weak Outlook for XRP
On-chain signals are also painting a rather grim picture for XRP. Data from Santiment highlights that the number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger has dropped dramatically. From a peak of 74,000 active addresses in December 2024, the number has since fallen by 62%, with only 28,000 addresses active in March 2025. This significant decrease in network activity suggests that fewer users are engaging with the XRP ecosystem, signaling a potential loss of interest from both retail and institutional investors.
Moreover, Santiment’s MVRV Z score, which tracks whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its price, also points to XRP being overpriced at current levels. A reading above 1 on the MVRV Z score indicates that more holders are in profit and might be inclined to sell, further pressuring the price downward. As of the latest data, the MVRV Z score for XRP stands at 2.8, indicating that long-term holders have unrealized gains between 2.8x and 6x. This could lead to profit-taking, adding more downward pressure on XRP’s price.
Accumulation and Potential for a Rally
Despite the bearish signals, some on-chain data offers a glimmer of hope for XRP bulls. According to data from Coinglass, a significant amount of XRP has been withdrawn from exchanges in recent weeks. In March 2025 alone, over $290 million worth of XRP left exchanges, suggesting that some investors are betting on a potential rally in the near future. If these holders are correct, and demand for XRP rises, the altcoin could see a reversal.
However, for this scenario to unfold, XRP would need to hold key support levels. The $2 and $1.4 price levels remain crucial for the token’s short-term outlook. As long as XRP stays above its 200-day moving average (DMA), which is currently acting as dynamic support, its bullish market structure remains intact. If XRP falls below these levels, it could trigger a more substantial sell-off, potentially pushing the price toward the $1.07 target predicted by Brandt.
Conclusion: Caution for XRP Holders
While XRP has shown resilience in the past, the current market signals are cautionary. With Peter Brandt’s bearish forecast and weakening on-chain signals, XRP could face a sharp decline if it slips below the $1.9 mark. However, the accumulation of XRP off exchanges suggests that some market participants are betting on a future rally. XRP holders should watch the key support levels closely, as breaking below them could lead to further downside. For now, the altcoin’s market structure remains at a crossroads, with much depending on the coming weeks.
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